A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
